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Concept and types of inflation. The economic consequences of inflation.

Inflation is defined as a continued rise in the average level of prices. Now we will concentrate first on the effects and then the causes of inflation.

Demand-pull inflation is a rise in the average price level caused by excess demand at full employment. The excess demand increases the average level of prices, which is inflation.

Cost-push inflation is a rise in the average price level due to an increase in production costs. Cost-push originates from the supply side of the economy. Monopoly power significantly contributes to cost-push inflation. The monopoly power of labor unions may result in wage increases that inflate the cost of production. The power of monopoly business permits these costs to be passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices. Once prices go up, labor realizes that its recent wage gain has been eroded, and it again raises wages. The increase in wages again causes prices to rise, and the wage-price spiral repeats itself.

Supply-shock inflation results from infrequent drastic changes in the production cost of fundamental products.

Once people start expecting prices to rise, and act upon it by buying more, prices will rise, and expectations inflation is the result. Psychology plays an important role in a social science.

Stagflation The combination of falling output and rising prices.

Deflation A decrease in the price level from one period to the next.

Инфляция в некоторых странах в 2009-2012гг.


Уровень инфляции в Казахстане за 1991 – 2012 гг.


2. The concept of unemployment. Kinds of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment. Okun's law. Phillips curve.

Employment data are collected in a house-hold survey and in an establishment survey. Employment is closely related to output fluctuations. The labour force is defined as the number of persons 16 years of age or over who are either working or unemployed. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labour force that is unemployed. There are millions of people who are not working but who are not counted as unemployed. They are considered out of the labour force because they are retired, in school, at home looking after their own children, sick or not looking for work for some other reasons. The labour force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population that is in the labour force.

The employment/population ratio is the percentage of the working-age population that is employed. Economists distinguish between frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment.

Frictional unemployment is the unemployment that results because it takes time for workers to search for the jobs that best suit their skills and tastes.

Structural unemployment caused by changes in the structure of demand for consumer goods and in technology; workers, who are unemployed either because their skills are not demanded by employers or because they lack sufficient skills to obtain employment.

Cyclical unemployment caused by insufficient aggregate expenditures.

Natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate at which there is no cyclical unemployment. It's the sum of frictional and structural unemployment. The real level of national output which associated with the natural rate of unemployment is called the economy's potential output. The full employment unemployment rate, and the natural rate of unemployment, and the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) are synonyms which describe the steady-state rate of unemployment. This rate of unemployment is currently believed to be between 6 and 7 percent. The accurate measurement of unemployment is complicated by the existence of part time and discouraged workers.


Уровень безработицы в Казахстане за период 2007 – 2011 гг.

Население в возрасте 15 лет и старше          
Экономически активное население, тыс. чел. 8228,3 8415,0 8457,9 8610,7 8774,6
Уровень экономической активности населения, % 70,4 71,1 70,7 71,2 71,6
Занятое население, тыс. человек 7631,1 7857,2 7903,4 8114,2 8301,6
Наемные работники, тыс. человек 4973,5 5199,4 5238,8 5409,4 5581,4
Доля наемных работников в численности занятого населения, в % 65,2 66,2 66,3 66,7 67,2
Самостоятельно занятые, тыс. человек 2657,6 2657,8 2664,6 2704,8 2720,2
Доля самостоятельно занятых в численности занятого населения, % 34,8 33,8 33,7 33,3 32,8
Безработное население, тыс. человек 597,2 557,8 554,5 496,5 473,0
Уровень безработицы, в % 7,3 6,6 6,6 5,8 5,4
Уровень молодежной безработицы (в возрасте 15-24 лет), в % 9,4 7,4 6,7 5,2 4,6
Уровень долгосрочной безработицы, в % 3,3 2,8 2,5 2,2 2,1
Экономически неактивное население, тыс. чел. 3463,2 3416,2 3500,3 3487,7 3477,3
Уровень экономической неактивности (пассивности), в % 29,6 28,9 29,3 28,8 28,4
Численность граждан, обратившихся по вопросу трудоустройства с начала года, тыс. чел. 236,3 248,0 582,6 434,3 322,5
из них трудоустроено, тыс. чел. 211,2 216,6 475,4 381,7 235,0


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